A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer
Milliner, I. , White, P. and Webber, D. J. (2009) A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer. Journal of Gambling, Business and Economics, 3 (1). pp. 89-99. ISSN 1751-8008
Publisher's URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jgbe/20...
Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
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