Travelers' day-to-day route choice behavior with real-time information in a congested risky network

Lu, X., Gao, S., Ben-Elia, E. and Pothering, R. (2014) Travelers' day-to-day route choice behavior with real-time information in a congested risky network. Mathematical Population Studies, 21 (4). pp. 205-219. ISSN 0889-8480

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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08898480.2013.836418

Abstract

Non-recurring disruptions to traffic systems caused by incidents or adverse conditions can result in uncertain travel times. Real-time information allows travelers to adapt to actual traffic conditions. In a behavior experiment, subjects completed 120 “days” of repeated route choices in a hypothetical, competitive network submitted to random capacity reductions. One scenario provided subjects with real-time information regarding a probable incident and the other did not. A reinforcement learning model with two scale factors, a discounting rate of previous experience, and a constant term is estimated by minimizing the deviation between predicted and observed daily flows. The estimation combines brute force enumeration and a subsequent stochastic approximation method. The prediction over 120 runs has a root mean square error of 1.05 per day per route and a bias of 0.14 per route.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Mathematical Population Studies on 03 November 2014, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/08898480.2013.836418
Uncontrolled Keywords:experiment, uncertain network, reinforcement learning, real-time information
Faculty/Department:Faculty of Environment and Technology
ID Code:17199
Deposited By: Dr E. Ben-Elia
Deposited On:29 Aug 2012 10:30
Last Modified:07 Feb 2015 20:22

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